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Nearly perfect: Karstens outduels Big Unit

Baseball Betting Lines

08/06/2008 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Karstens took a perfect game into the eighth inning before surrendering a double to Chris Young with two outs, but recovered to throw a two-hit shutout in Pittsburgh's 2-0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the finale of a three-game series.

Karstens (2-0) retired the first 23 batters before Young lined a 1-1 pitch into the left field corner in the eighth. Karstens recovered to get out of the inning on the next pitch, however, and survived a single and a walk in the ninth to pick up his second win in as many starts since joining the Pirates.

One of the four players acquired by Pittsburgh in the deal that sent Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees on July 26, Karstens tossed six shutout innings against the NL Central-leading Cubs in his National League debut on August 1, a 3-0 Pirates win.

That was merely a prelude to Wednesday, when the 25-year-old right-hander fanned four against the NL West-leading Diamondbacks and nearly tossed the 18th perfect game in major league history, and the first in Pirates history.

In doing so Karstens outdueled the man who tossed the last perfect game in the majors, Randy Johnson. Johnson (9-8) was strong, but not strong enough, surrendering seven hits and two runs in 7 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts and no walks for Arizona, which failed to sweep the three-game set.

"Jeff pitched outstanding," said Johnson, who was Karstens' teammate with the Yankees. "I got to meet him a little bit when he was in New York on that shuttle up and down ... He opened a lot of eyes."

Freddy Sanchez's solo homer and an RBI double by Doug Mientkiewicz provided the offense for the Pirates, who stemmed a four-game slide.

After the Pirates added an insurance run in the eighth, Karstens saw his bid for perfection end in the home half. Chad Tracy's hard liner to center was nabbed by Jason Michaels, and Chris Gomez recovered from a bobble on Mark Reynolds' grounder to throw across for the second out.

Young laced a double into left, though, ensuring that his teammate Johnson remained the last pitcher to toss a perfect game.

"It wasn't really nerves," said Karstens of Young's double. "It was one of those things and he (Young) stayed on a pitch and hit it down the line. Major league hitters are going to do that."

Karstens came right back and got Alex Romero to ground out to second to keep the shutout in line.

Karstens issued his only walk to pinch-hitter Augie Ojeda to lead off the ninth, but came back to get pinch-hitter Tony Clark to ground right back to the mound, starting a 1-6-3 double play. Orlando Hudson's grounder to first was the last out as Karstens settled for his first career shutout.

"Obviously he was outstanding," Pirates manager John Russell said of Karstens. "No-hitter in the eighth and he threw the ball as good as he can throw it. That's what he's capable of doing."

Johnson is the last pitcher, and the oldest to reach perfection, as he was 40 when he accomplished the feat against the Braves on May 18, 2004. His only mistake through seven innings was an 0-2 slider he hung up and over the plate to Sanchez with one out and the bases empty in the fourth. Sanchez belted it into the seats down the line in left for his eighth homer of the season, the first earned run Johnson had allowed in 24 innings.

The Pirates touched Johnson for another run in the eighth, though, led by none other than Karstens, who lined a one-out single to left to start the rally. Gomez's looping pop fell just fair in shallow right to put two men on for Mientkiewicz, who exchanged words with Johnson after "The Big Unit" was upset by a late timeout call by Mientkiewicz in a Pirates win in Pittsburgh on June 9.

Mientkiewicz exacted a bit of revenge, as his line-drive double into the corner in right plated Karstens for a two-run edge, and ended Johnson's day.

Game Notes

The last Pirates no-hitter was a combined effort from Francisco Cordova and Ricardo Rincon in a 10-inning, 3-0 win over Astros in 1997. John Candelaria was the last pitcher to throw a no-hitter for the Bucs, in a 2-0 win over the Dodgers on August 9, 1976...The D-backs are 30-40 in games outside of the NL West this season, compared to 29-15 against divisional foes. Last season the club was 54-36 in games outside of the NL West and 36-36 in divisional games...The Pirates have beaten Johnson five of the last seven times he has faced the club.


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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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