PGA Championship First Round News & Notes
Golf Betting Lines
08/07/2008 -
Bloomfield Hills Township, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite the fact they share a
surname, there is no relation, whatsoever, between Jeev Milkha Singh and Vijay
Singh.
"In the practice rounds I can hear a lot of people say, 'Oh, I think he's
Vijay's son or he's Vijay's brother.' I heard that many times," admitted Jeev
Milkha. "I just say I'm the other Singh."
On Thursday, he was the superior Singh.
He posted a two-under 69, while Vijay, a two-time champion and the winner of
last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, struggled to a six-over-par 76 on
Thursday.
"My short game was sharp," said Jeev Milkha Singh. "Didn't drive the ball that
good, but any time you shoot under par in a major championship, I think you
got to take it and put it deep down in your pocket and I've done that today."
While most casual fans don't know, the younger Singh is one of the hottest
players in the field. He has won two of his last four starts - one in Austria,
one in Japan - and has done so in some substantial pain.
"I had been suffering with a little tendon running through the ankle on my
right foot. It's got a lot of pain," acknowledged Singh. "I've been wearing a
brace for the last four weeks. I did injure it just before the French Open,
that was about seven, eight weeks ago. I've been getting a lot of physio done
and it gets better, but you hit one of those shots out of the rough and I'm
back to square one."
Singh complained that using the driver hurts a little more than other clubs.
His doctor told him he needed four weeks rest. Singh told his doctor he
couldn't do it.
"I decided if I'm going to play the PGA Championship I'm going to push myself
through to this week and next week and after that I'm surely going to be
taking two weeks off, maybe I'm going to extend it to four," he said.
One positive Singh can take from the ankle injury is that he hasn't been able
to practice much at all. Remember, he's got two victories in the last seven
weeks.
"I haven't played any practice rounds for the last seven weeks in the
tournaments I've played and it's worked for me pretty good," said Singh, whose
father was a world-class sprinter.
Since Singh played nine holes each of the last two days, things might not look
great for him come Sunday.
NOT A FAN
"The Monster," the ominous nickname of the South Course at Oakland Hills, may
have lost a fan.
"I was happy to break 80 after being seven-over after 12 holes," said Lee
Westwood, who finished with a seven-over-par 77. "Standing on the 17th tee, I
asked my caddie if he could hear the sea as well as I am sure I could hear my
holiday calling. But I dug in there. I didn't do a lot wrong."
Westwood finished as a runner-up last week at the WGC-Bridgestone
Invitational. He went 4-0-1 in the 2004 Ryder Cup, the last big event staged
at Oakland Hills.
But Westwood was not a happy camper after his terrible round.
"The fairways are narrow and unfortunately if you miss the semi (rough) by a
foot you are worse off than if you miss by 20 yards, which you need to take
different people's opinions as the whether that is fair," he said.
Next up was the PGA of America's setup at Oakland Hills versus the USGA's
layout at Torrey Pines for the U.S. Open, an event, Westwood coincidentally
finished one shot out of the Tiger Woods/Rocco Mediate playoff.
"Cut all the rough out. I think the U.S. Open was set up perfectly," said
Westwood. "It rewards accuracy and penalizes you if you are off liner. I
didn't see that today. I asked my partners if I was out of order and they said
'No, if you are slightly off line you are crucified'."
Moving on to the rough around the greens...
"In my opinion, it is too thick around the greens as well," he said. "It takes
the skill away from chipping."
The par threes?
"If the wind gets up you won't get there. I hit a three-iron and Zach Johnson
hit five-wood and on 17."
And in conclusion, Westwood felt like the set up took away from a great venue
and a great championship.
"I sound as if I am moaning, which I am, but it is a great shame as it is a
fantastic golf course, they are great greens and they are playable, but there
is no need to play it as it is," said Westwood. "They are sucking the fun out
of the Major Championships when you set it up like that."
* Kenny Perry, a pre-tournament favorite thanks to a three-win 2008 PGA Tour
season, made it through the first round, but withdrew after his round. The
Golf Channel reported Perry injured his eye earlier in the week and he
eventually withdrew.
* Padraig Harrington, the winner of the last two British Opens, including last
month's, started wonderfully with three consecutive birdies. Unfortunately,
Harrington finished at one-over 71 in the opening round.
* Frank Esposito, Jr. leads the race for lowest club professional after his
one-over 71 on Thursday. Esposito, playing in his first PGA Championship,
works out of Brooklake Country Club in Florham, New Jersey.
* According to pga.com and Dave Shedloski, Paul Goydos, who lost the playoff
to Sergio Garcia at The Players Championship, was the first player drug tested
at a major championship. Goydos shot a four-over 74 in round one.
* There was a tie for easiest hole on Thursday. The two par-fives, Nos. 2 and
12, both played to an average of 4.7115. They were the only two holes that
played to par or better.
* The hardest hole on Thursday was the 498-yard, par-four 18th. It played to
an average of 4.6122. The 257-yard, par-three ninth also played a half-shot
over par with an average of 3.5238.
<< Karlsson, Jeev Milkha Singh and Romero lead suspended PGA
Bloomfield Hills Township, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robert Karlsson of Sweden and
India's Jeev Milkha Singh both posted rounds of two-under 68 on Thursday and
share the lead with Andres Romero during the suspended first round of the PGA
Champio
<< Clippers add veteran Williams
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers signed veteran
guard Jason Williams, who had been with the Miami Heat. Per team policy,
terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The 32-year-old Williams joins his fourth
<< Report: Florida TE Ingram has torn ACL
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - University of Florida senior tight end
Cornelius Ingram has reportedly torn the anterior cruciate ligament in his
left knee, effectively ending his 2008 season.
According to Sporting News, Ingra
<< Kansas State gives coach a Prince of a deal
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas State announced Thursday that head
football coach Ron Prince agreed to a new multi-year contract, keeping him
with the school through the 2012 season.
The new five-year deal is retroactive to
<< Red Sox minor leaguer suspended
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball suspended Boston Red
Sox minor leaguer Victor De La Cruz 50 games after the pitcher tested positive
for Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, in violation of the Minor
League
Blumenherst continues to roll at U.S. Women's Amateur >>
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amanda Blumenherst rolled to a pair of wins
Thursday to advance to the quarterfinals of the 108th U.S. Women's Amateur at
Eugene Country Club.
Blumenherst, the NCAA Player of the Year and last year's r
Nats sweep doubleheader with Rockies >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wil Nieves and Willie Harris drove in two runs
apiece to give the Washington Nationals a 6-3 victory over the Colorado
Rockies, sweeping Thursday's doubleheader at Coors Field.
Odalis Perez (5-8) won
Tolles fires 62 to lead Wichita Open >>
Wichita, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Tolles fired a nine-under-par 62 Thursday
to grab a one-stroke lead with the first round of the Wichita Open suspended
due to darkness.
Tolles' 62 missed both the course record and the 18-hole tourname
Oswalt continues to stymie Reds in Houston victory >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Oswalt dominated the Cincinnati hitters
to help the Houston Astros win a 7-4 decision in the first of four games at
Great American Ball Park.
Oswalt (9-8) improved his career record against the R
Williams helps Hamilton down Toronto >>
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Richie Williams threw for 293 yards and three
touchdowns, including Hamilton's first passing touchdown of the season, as the
Tiger-Cats dismantled the Toronto Argonauts to the tune of 45-21, at Ivor
Wynne.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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